Abilene Housing Market Update: Higher Rates Could Test the Market This Fall

The August housing numbers are out for Abilene, and once again the median sales price is going to get most of the attention.

The median price for the Abilene MSA was $304,900 in August, up 15.5% from August 2025.

That’s a big increase. But just like we discussed last month, I don’t think Abilene homes suddenly became 15% more valuable.

August actually gives us more evidence that the mix of homes selling is having a big impact on that number.

The Median Price Is Still High, But It’s Already Come Down

In July, Abilene’s median sales price reached $313,500, up a whopping 26.3% from the year before.

In August, it dropped back to $304,900. That’s about $8,600 lower in one month, while the year-over-year increase fell from 26.3% to 15.5%.

I’ve been talking about this distinction for several months now: an increase in median sales price is not necessarily the same thing as an increase in home values.

The median tells us the middle price of the homes that sold. Change the mix of those homes and you change the median.

When we dug into July’s numbers, we found more sales happening in the $300,000–$500,000 ranges and fewer lower-priced homes making up the total. August still shows quite a bit of that.

Of all August sales:

• 25.7% were between $200,000 and $299,999
• 29.0% were between $300,000 and $399,999
• 22.9% were $400,000 or higher

More than half of the homes sold in August were above $300,000.

That’s a very different statement than saying the typical Abilene home increased 15.5% in value over the last year.

It didn’t.

I’m Watching the Rest of the Numbers More Closely

The median price makes the better headline, but some of the other August numbers probably tell us more about where the market could be headed.

There were 215 closed sales in August, down 15% from last year.

We had 538 active listings and 2.3 months of inventory. That’s still a relatively tight supply of homes, but inventory has moved from 1.8 months in June to 2.2 in July and now 2.3 in August.

Homes averaged 30 days on market before going under contract.

I don’t look at any of that and think the Abilene housing market is in trouble. I do think it’s getting harder to argue that the market is getting hotter simply because the median sales price is higher.

And now we have another factor to deal with.

Mortgage Rates Are Back Around 7%

Mortgage rates have moved in the wrong direction for buyers.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun reported September 16 that average mortgage rates had risen from around 6% in late February to approximately 7% and said buyers may need to expect 7% as the new normal, at least for now.

The Federal Reserve also raised its target rate by a quarter point on September 16 as inflation continues to be a concern.

The federal funds rate and mortgage rates aren’t the same thing and don’t move together dollar-for-dollar, but the bigger issue for our housing market is pretty simple:

Borrowing money has gotten more expensive again.

For some perspective, on a $250,000 30-year mortgage, the difference between 6% and 7% is roughly $165 per month in principal and interest.

At $300,000, it’s about $200 per month.

Same house. Same purchase price. Just a more expensive payment.

That adds up quickly when buyers are already dealing with higher insurance, property taxes and everyday expenses.

That’s What Has Me More Cautious Heading Into Fall

We’ve had a couple of things working in Abilene’s favor for quite a while: relatively tight inventory and solid demand.

But affordability still matters.

A buyer doesn’t shop based only on the price of a house. They have to be able to afford the payment.

When rates rise, buying power falls. And when that happens at the same time inventory is slowly increasing and sales are slowing, I think it’s worth paying attention.

I’m not predicting some dramatic drop in Abilene home prices. I don’t see anything in these numbers that would justify saying that.

But I also wouldn’t look at a 15.5% year-over-year increase in the median price and assume we’re headed for another big run-up in home values.

We’ve now seen the median fall from July to August. Closed sales were down 15%. Inventory has increased for three straight months. And buyers are once again dealing with mortgage rates around 7%.

That’s enough for me to be more cautious about what we see this fall.

Sellers May Have to Adjust Too

This is where pricing gets really important.

When buyers have very few choices and financing is cheap, sellers can get away with being more aggressive.

Give buyers more choices and a higher monthly payment, and they become a lot less forgiving.

We’re absolutely still seeing homes sell quickly in Abilene. The right home, in the right condition, at the right price can move very quickly.

But that’s not the same market for every house.

Price range matters. Condition matters. Location matters. Competition matters.

If Abilene’s median price is up 15.5%, that does not mean you should take what your house was worth last August and add 15.5%.

That’s just not how this works.

So Where Does That Leave Abilene?

I still think we have a healthy housing market.

2.3 months of inventory is not an oversupplied market. An average of 30 days to get a home under contract isn’t particularly slow either.

But the market is changing.

Inventory is gradually rebuilding. Sales were down in August. Mortgage rates are back around 7%. And the big increases we’ve seen in median sales price continue to have a lot to do with which homes are selling, not simply every house in Abilene suddenly becoming dramatically more valuable.

That’s why I spend so much time digging into these numbers instead of repeating the headline.

Even an Abilene-wide statistic can only tell us so much. What’s happening with a $175,000 house can be completely different from what’s happening at $350,000 or $700,000. One neighborhood can be moving while another one a few miles away is sitting.

Real estate is local, and right now I think the details matter more than the headline.

We’ll keep digging into them each month.

BHGRE Senter, REALTORS®
Serving Abilene and the Big Country since 1957.
325-695-8000 | SenterRealtors.com